Spanish Open: Steve Palmer's final-round analysis, best bets, free tip – Racing Post

Jon Rahm has left the Spanish Open field in his wake

Ezra Shaw

When to watch

Sky Sports Golf, 12pm Sunday

Best bet

Adri Arnaus without Jon Rahm
1pt 15-2 Coral, Ladbrokes

Story so far

When Jon Rahm made back-to-back bogeys at the eighth and ninth holes of round three, his Spanish Open title defence was not going well, but the brilliant 24-year-old responded with a sensational seven-under-par back-nine 28 to take full control of proceedings.

The world number five and potential future world number one has gears which not many possess, and the way he quickly turned a tight tournament into a probable procession was hugely impressive. The pre-tournament 3-1 favourite has forged a five-shot advantage and is no bigger than 1-9 with 18 holes to play at Club de Campo Villa de Madrid.

The market is 14-1 bar Rahm, the ante-post jolly fully justifying the respect afforded by bookmakers. Sergio Garcia, the 6-1 second-favourite, is tied for 18th place and 11 shots behind.

-17 Jon Rahm
-12 Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Samuel Del Val
-11 Jens Dantorp
-10 Adri Arnaus, Jason Scrivener, Zander Lombard

Best prices
1-9 J Rahm, 14 R Cabrera-Bello, 40 S Del Val, 66 A Arnaus, 100 J Dantorp, J Scrivener, 150 bar

Final-round preview

There appears to be no point in chasing a lost cause for punters who failed to support the overwhelming ante-post favourite, Jon Rahm, who looks almost certain to reward his backers.

Bookmakers were not giving much away with a best-price 3-1 Rahm this week, but the class act of the field has made it look like a snip with his third-round 63, and the rest of the field are surely playing for second place.

Punters have the ‘without Rahm’ market to consider – and Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Adri Arnaus are the two players on which to concentrate. Arnaus is a much bigger price and is well capable of pipping Cabrera-Bello for the runner-up cheque.

Arnaus has enjoyed a successful rookie campaign on the European Tour, since starring on the Challenge Tour last season, and has finished runner-up three times. The Kenya Open, the Czech Masters and the Andalucia Masters have all seen Arnaus take second place – and a fourth runner-up effort could be coming in Madrid.

Arnaus is an attacking player, full of firepower, and he has a low Sunday score in him from a relaxed threeball alongside Justin Harding and Fabrizio Zanotti. Cabrera-Bello is in the final threeball with Rahm, an uncomfortable slot as a sideshow to the rampant defending champion.

Expect Rahm to triumph comfortably, with a fully focused Arnaus doing enough to bank a handy runner-up cheque to further cement his place on the European Tour.

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